The recent escalation of the Thailand–Cambodia border conflict has become one of the most significant bilateral tensions in Southeast Asia in recent years. On July 24, 2025, violent encounters resumed along the lengthy 817 km frontier, characterized by artillery shells, drone strikes, rocket attacks, and F-16 airstrikes. This outbreak of violence has already led to over a dozen civilian deaths and forced mass evacuations, prompting both nations to expel diplomats in a rapid series of retaliatory actions.
Analyzing the developments leading up to this confrontation requires a look at both the historical context and the various factors contributing to the current crisis. The Preah Vihear Temple dispute serves as a focal point for lingering tensions. This conflict traces back to colonial-era agreements and subsequent international judicial decisions. A French map from 1907 initially granted sovereignty of the temple to Cambodia, despite earlier agreements favoring Thailand. A 1962 ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded the temple to Cambodia, but ambiguities remained regarding the surrounding land. A follow-up clarification in 2013 emphasized Cambodia’s sovereignty over nearby territories, yet the border demarcation remains incomplete, with only two-thirds of colonial-era border markers verified.
The most recent event in the ongoing conflict began with a landmine blast injuring Thai soldiers on July 23, leading to increased military posturing by both sides and ultimately culminating in an exchange of hostilities. Following accusations of provocation—including drone incursions and shelling—Thailand launched F-16 airstrikes targeting Cambodian military installations, declaring self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. In what has become a damaging cycle of aggression, civilian sites were also targeted, resulting in numerous casualties and the displacement of an estimated 40,000 individuals.
Behind the immediate violence lies a series of domestic and regional drivers that have exacerbated the situation. Stalled border negotiations only add friction to the conflict. While Cambodia appears poised to bring the issue back to the ICJ, Thailand insists on bilateral talks, guided by a memorandum of understanding established in 2000. Political turbulence in Thailand, marked by the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn after leaked remarks suggesting concessions, has only further complicated dialogue efforts.
The escalation has been fueled by military posturing, with Thailand deploying F-16s as part of its “Chakrabongse Plan”—a military strategy focused on enhancing national security along the border. Mutual accusations of military provocations have heightened tensions as both nations seek to defend their territorial claims.
Cross-border crime, including illegal smuggling operations and the activities of armed gangs, has also contributed to the violence, complicating domestic security challenges for both countries. As armed groups engage in lucrative illicit trades, including rosewood smuggling and methamphetamine trafficking, the implications for stability in the region become more severe.
On the diplomatic front, statements issued by both Thailand and Cambodia have been unequivocal, with Thailand asserting its readiness to escalate in the face of aggression, while Cambodia vowed to respond forcefully. Despite calls for restraint from ASEAN and neighboring countries, the responses remain muted, largely adhering to the non-interference principle that governs the regional bloc.
The humanitarian fallout from the conflict is deeply concerning. With thousands of civilians displaced and critical services disrupted—particularly in remote areas facing power outages and threats to agricultural production—the region’s socio-economic stability hangs in the balance. Increased deportations and trafficking risks further exacerbate the plight of migrant workers in the area.
Looking ahead, several scenarios could unfold in the wake of this latest outbreak of violence. A potential cease-fire and resumption of negotiations could provide a temporary reprieve, but the ongoing humanitarian crisis could lead to a frozen conflict. Conversely, the threat of wider escalation remains a possibility if heavy military assets continue to be mobilized by both nations.
In sum, the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict reflects not only colonial legacies but also the complexities of nationalist narratives, stalled diplomatic negotiations, and transnational crime. As tensions rise in the Southeast Asian landscape, it becomes crucial for regional stakeholders, including ASEAN, to facilitate dialogue and engage with international legal frameworks to prevent a descent into protracted conflict. Only through sustained diplomatic efforts can the likelihood of enduring peace be increased, averting the potential for the border to become a lasting line of division in the region’s security architecture.
